Craig,

I read your column regarding the Great Depression at Toy Fair and your unhappiness about the Licensing Expo's move to Las Vegas. My staff and I also attended New York Toy Fair and found it amazingly upbeat with strong traffic and exhibitors expressing positive attitudes. As journalists, my staff and I ask retailers, manufacturers and licensing executives for their observations. In almost every interview we conducted, there was a greater optimism about the toy business and toy sales for the coming year. When asked why, the prevailing opinion was that while consumers are spending less on big purchase items, they still will spend on their children.

As an aside, the Nuremburg Toy Fair, which is the largest toy fair in the world, was extremely well attended, and our reports are that exhibitors and attendees were very pleased. On the down side, at some of the regional European toy fairs—both London and Paris Toy Fairs—attendance and exhibitors were down, as was the recent Kidscreen Summit here in New York.

We also attended MAGIC in Las Vegas and were very surprised at the attendance and positive feedback from manufacturers specializing in licensed apparel. As a result of some exhibitors opting for smaller positions this year, the MAGIC organizers consolidated their show floors, which enabled retailers to cross over into new areas of the show where they typically would not have walked. The licensed apparel section was busier than we have seen it for some time. Why? We are hearing that retailers are taking much more interest in licensed merchandise as a way to drive more traffic into stores. The Project Show at Mandalay Bay, a very high-end apparel show, was packed—You were lucky to get through the aisles. It certainly did not bring to mind a depression.

The conclusion I draw as an industry analyst is that in tough economic times, stronger shows—like stronger retailers and manufacturers—will survive and in some cases thrive, while weaker ones will continue to weaken. What we see in a difficult economy is simply a faster downward cycle for weaker companies. Rather than debate the pros and cons of Licensing Expo's move to Las Vegas, I think the bigger question we need to ask ourselves is this: What is the overall health of the licensing industry? Is licensing a growth business or one that is declining? Is the economy so bad that I don't have a chance to license my property, sell into retail or get consumers into my stores? If you're thinking that way, you should simply close shop, get whatever money you have and put it in your mattress for safekeeping or head for the hills. If however, you feel that licensing drives retail sales, and there is every indication that it does, then you need to get with the program and get to Vegas in June.

The reason licensing works, at the most basic level, is that the property being licensed appeals to consumers' emotions to such a degree that consumers will open their wallets and spend money on a product. I would argue that in tough economic times, licensing is an even stronger tool than in good times. After all, not only does it drive revenue from the licensed merchandise, but reinforces the core property, as well. If you talk with top retailers like Walmart, H&M, Top Shop and Hot Topic, they will tell you they have increased their open to buy in licensed merchandise.

We're a small, close-knit industry. I believe as communicators and members of the licensing community, we have a tremendous responsibility to help our industry thrive in tough economic times. Let's focus on the positive. Not every company will survive this economic downturn, but those with a positive outlook and good properties have a much better chance. There has never been a case of a company that downsized its staff, stopped marketing and managed to be successful. It is tough and money is tight, which means that all of us need to make hard choices about where to spend our marketing dollars. However in an industry like licensing, where image is everything, think hard before cutting the spend that communicates your properties' strengths to retail.

Let me address the move to Las Vegas.

The industry should trust that a trade show organizer the size and scope of Advanstar Communications would not move the show from New York to Las Vegas without having done significant research into both pros and cons. Advanstar is a very successful company and plans to remain that way. The purpose of the move is simple: Move the show to a larger, more modern facility, in a significantly more affordable, cooperative, fun location, and the show will grow. If the show grows, the industry becomes stronger. This growth filters down to exhibitors, manufacturers, support services (like Yoe!) and retailers, as well. It's called win, win.

My office is 10 feet away from the show organizers' offices. I know for a fact that no major exhibitor has pulled out of the show. I talk with them several times a day. The rumors are simply false. Anyone concerned about a rumor they heard regarding the show, can call me at (212) 951-6684.

There is an axiom that goes, "If you always do what you always did, then you will always get what you always got." One could argue that Licensing Expo should never have been moved out of the Hilton Hotel to the Javits. Someone took a chance and moved it, and guess what? It got larger and had better attendance. The same will happen in Las Vegas.

It is certainly understandable that New York-based exhibitors would not be happy about a show moving to Las Vegas. After all, it now costs them airfare and hotels that they previously did not have as expenses. The same airfare and hotels that companies from outside New York have been paying for years to attend the show. Bite the bullet, people! Let's stop being selfish because we're based in New York and have to spend a little more on T&E now. If budgets are tight, send less people. In all seriousness, think about how many retailers are based in New York vs. not. As exhibitors, you are going to see a significant increase in retail traffic by moving to Las Vegas. Isn't that what we all want?

There is a fear that New York-based retailers and manufacturers will not attend the show in Vegas. The reality is if they are meaningful players in the business, they will be there. There is only one Licensing International Expo. Nothing else compares or comes close. If you are not at the show, you simply cannot remain informed about licensing.

Lastly, I would like to affirm License! Global's commitment to our industry. License! Global remains committed to publishing our print and digital editions monthly, as well as our daily e-newsletter and data-rich Web site. We know that in tough times, our 33,000 subscribers of retailers, manufacturers and licensors are even more in need of the information necessary to make the right business decisions that will help them succeed. Anyone who needs a subscription to the magazine or daily e-news can go to www.licensemag.com and sign up free of charge.