Thanksgiving, Holiday Spending to Grow

IBISWorld is forecasting a slight increase in Thanksgiving and holiday gift spending this year.

Revenue generated by the Thanksgiving holiday is expected to increase only slightly from 2012, while Cyber Monday sales are anticipated to increase strongly by double-digits in 2013, but primarily because consumers are continuing to shift away from physical store shopping and toward online deals.

Overall gift spending from Black Friday through Cyber Monday is expected to grow 2.2 percent year-over-year.

The slow growth of disposable incomes and October’s U.S. government shutdown account for the lackluster numbers, according to the market research firm.

THANKSGIVING

Compared with last year, Thanksgiving spending is anticipated to grow 3.7 percent to $8.2 billion. More than two-thirds of this figure comes from spending on food and drink for family gatherings and festivities; this category is expected to increase 5.1 percent from 2012.

With 87.8 percent of U.S. households expected to celebrate the holiday, the average household will spend $52.75 on Thanksgiving dinner and $31.23 on turkey with more discretionary expenses such as greeting cards and gifts not anticipated to grow much this year, increasing only 0.7 percent over 2012 figures.

HOLIDAY SHOPPING

  2013 2012
BLACK FRIDAY ($M) 13,618.5 13,113.3
% annual change 3.9 %
BLACK FRIDAY WEEKEND ($M) 38,688.3 38,034.8
% annual change 1.7%
CYBER MONDAY ($M) 1,770.7 1,565.8
% annual change 13.1%

Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending increases are projected to be smaller than those of 2012, with Black Friday projected to generate $13.6 billion in revenue, an increase of 3.9 percent over last year’s total.

Growth in Black Friday revenue will be driven largely by door-buster deals and online sales that start at midnight.

Spending during the Black Friday weekend (Friday, Saturday and Sunday) is anticipated to grow 1.7 percent to $38.7 billion with the bulk of weekend purchases (35.2 percent) expected to be made on Black Friday itself, owing to enticing sales and the spirit of the day itself.

Cyber Monday, while still only about 15 percent the size of Black Friday in terms of revenue, is forecast to record double-digit growth of 13.1 percent. The $1.8 billion shopping day has increasingly made its way to the top of shoppers’ preferences for its plethora of online deals and free shipping promotions. 

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